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March 28, 2014

Rainfall tonight with strong thunderstorms possible

Live Oak — From the National Weather Service:

Synopsis & Timing

 

Waves of showers with embedded thunderstorms will impact the forecast area beginning this afternoon through Saturday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.



For the remainder of today...we expect shower activity to start breaking out across the area near the coasts with the sea breezes during the early afternoon (12-2 pm) then coverage spreading inland through the late afternoon hours (2 pm - 5 pm) when isolated thunderstorms are possible.



This evening...more widespread rainfall with a few strong thunderstorms from a large storm complex is expected to drift inland from the Gulf of Mexico and Fl Panhandle affecting interests from Baxley to Lake City westward 5-8 pm. Rainfall will spread west to east with all locations getting rain. Heavier rainfall activity is expected over northeast Florida based on the current trajectory of the storm complex over the central Gulf Coast region. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in isolated thunderstorm activity...especially near the Gulf Coast region this evening before midnight. A few strong thunderstorms capable of gusty winds will be possible this evening.

 
After this first wave of rainfall clears the area early early Saturday morning...there will likely be a brief break in persistent rainfall until the next wave approaches Sat afternoon. There are model discrepancies with the respect to the evolution and form of precipitation accompanying the cold front tomorrow. Although dynamical support will be adequate for strong storms...instability and moisture may be lacking At this time will continue to highlight the Storm Prediction Center's Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for our area Saturday...but do feel that it is going to be mostly a rainfall event with embedded t'storms ahead of the cold front Saturday afternoon. If a strong or severe storm does develop, the main hazard will be strong wind gusts near 60  mph.



Impacts

 
Rainfall: Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.5-1.5 inches are expected this afternoon through Sat evening with this system. Locally higher amounts are possible in thunderstorm activity. Area rivers may respond to this added rainfall within a few days.

 
Thunderstorms: Strong storms will be possible this afternoon through midnight as the storm system in the Gulf tracks eastward. Gusty winds will be the main hazard.

Slight risk of severe storms possible Saturday due to increased low level winds. Storm coverage is not expected to be expansive Saturday, and if severe storms develop, the main hazard will be gusty winds.

 

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