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July 2, 2014

Tropical Storm Arthur on track to pass east of the local coastline tonight

Live Oak —

Synopsis & Forecast Confidence: 

Tropical Storm Arthur was located about 200 miles SE of Jacksonville early this morning. The forecast models are in very good agreement tracking the core of the storm east of the local coastline late this evening and tonight. Conditions remain favorable for Arthur to develop into a hurricane over the next couple of days as the storm tracks north and northeast along the Atlantic seaboard, away from the local waters. 

Local Impacts & Timing:

The greatest impact from Arthur will be over the adjacent Atlantic waters and along the immediate coastline today through early Thursday morning.  Conditions will improve later in the day Thursday as the storm tracks farther NE away from the region, but lingering swells will keep an elevated rip current risk at local beaches, potentially through the holiday weekend.  

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Atlantic coastal waters 20-60 NM offshore. We are expecting tropical storm conditions over the waters later today through tonight. A high risk of rip currents was issued for local beaches today. Squalls of showers and isolated thunderstorms will rotate onshore working their way northward through tonight. Gusty winds and brief locally heavy rainfall will be possible in these squalls. Rainfall amounts may near 1-2 inches along the immediate coast, especially south of St. Augustine through Thursday. 

Marine Impacts: 

Nearshore (within 20 NM): Small Craft Advisory conditions today through early Thursday morning. 

Offshore (20-60 NM): Tropical Storm Warning today through early Thursday morning. 

Coastal Impacts: 

High risk of rip currents today and possibly again on Thursday. Breakers of 4-6 ft are likely, especially south of St. Augustine today. 

Rainfall Outlook:

Coast: Bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms will move onshore through tonight, with locally heavy rainfall possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible generally south of St Augustine through Thursday, with locally higher amounts. Gusty winds in squalls may reach up to 40 mph.   

Inland:  Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected both today and Thursday.  

High Heat Indices

Dangerous heat indices are expected today and Thursday inland with values near 105 expected during the afternoon across southeast Georgia and northern portions of the Suwanee River Valley. 

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