Live Oak — From the National Weather Service out of Jacksonville.
Marine & Coastal Impacts Likely Late Tuesday through Wednesday from Low Pressure east of Florida Atlantic Coast...
Synopsis & Forecast Confidence:
An area of low pressure was about 200 miles ESE of St. Augustine early this morning. Conditions are still favorable for this low to develop into a tropical system (likely a tropical depression) over the next next several days as remains east of the Florida Atlantic Coast, and then tracks northward track toward the Carolinas after mid-week. Forecast models have come into some agreement with this low through early Tuesday, then, however, continue to diverge with the strength and track of the low as it begins a northward trek late Tuesday through Wednesday. This is the time period when the system will near the local coastline.
Impacts & Timing:
Based on the latest forecast, the greatest impact from this system will likely be over the adjacent Atlantic waters and along the immediate coastline Tuesday and Wednesday, with conditions improving Thursday as the low tracks farther NNE away from the region.
NNE winds will increase into the 15-20 kt with combined seas of 3-5 ft expected to build to 4-6 ft offshore today as swells increase. As the low drifts farther south of the waters Mon & Tue, wind speeds may decrease into the 10-15 kt range then increase again Tue night-Wed as the low begins lift northward along the Florida Atlantic coast. At this time, winds 20 kts or less are forecast through the upcoming week with seas 6 ft or less. These magnitudes could change if the storm track shifts and/or the storm strengthens. Mariners are encouraged to continue to closely monitor this system.
As onshore flow increases today through midweek and swells build, the chance of dangerous rip currents along the coast will also increase. Today there is a moderate risk of rip currents, with at least a moderate risk of rip currents expected to continue through midweek.